Marathon race pace

I'm running the London Marathon on the 22nd April. This will be my 5th marathon and I have PB of 4:00:26. I entered the London with the goal of breaking the 4 hour mark. Previously I have not followed a training plan but this year I felt I had the time to follow one-I chose the runners world training plan. My half marathon PB was 1:37 and the site suggested I should be aiming for the sub 3:30 category. I've followed this training plan almost religiously (missing only a few of the short Saturday runs) but over the last month completed 3x20milers (in 3:05, 3:04 and 2:54 last weekend) a quick half marathon in 1:36 and today my last long run of 22 miles in 3:14. All of these long slow runs are either close to or quicker than the guide time in the training plan. I am now going to taper as per the plan. My question is, as I've followed the plan and am meeting all the suggested times (including the midweek hills/intervals/tempo sessions) should I aim for around a 3:30 marathon as the schedule suggests? because on today's 22miler I was pretty tired at the end. Or should I just aim for a sub-4 as planned eg 9 minute/mile pace? I just don't know if I have the confidence to go out at 8:00min/mile pace when all my long runs have been run at 8:50-9:00min/mile pace. Any thoughts would be appreciated.

Simon

So I followed the same plan as you, posting very similar times in training and half marathon.

I am almost certain you are not going to make 3.30. I am aiming for 3.45 so that's 8.30 race pace. As the race goes on (depending on circumstances such as the weather etc) I will then decide/find out whether it will be a bit faster or a bit slower.

Hence my advice: go for the middle option of 3.45 initially.

Jasper

Thanks for the response Jasper. 

Thats exactly what I was thinking of doing. I think it is a bit ambitious to think a sub3:30 marathon is possible with that training schedule. With my 22miler this week, if I kept the same pace i would complete the marathon in 3:50 which is well below my 4:00 aim. I was just curious as to other peoples thoughts about these training schedules which prompted me to ask the question. Good luck with your race

Hi everyone, Getting ready for London marathon. I have had a nagging head cold in the last 2 weeks which is slowly shifting so my taper could have been better although the forced odd day off will help my recovery if anything. Maybe i'm worrying too much. I have run 11 marathons but never london. Got a good for age qualifying time in Dublin 2010 ( 3:14). I am aiming to run between 3:05 and 3:10 but i'm a little unsure on how to achieve this ( worried i may go off too fast but i need to be within touching distance of a pace maker early on. Anyone got words of wisdom and inspiration on my comments. Good luck in th erace everyone