2013 ballot closed before i made it online - gutted!!

even though its unlikely id get a place 2 years in a row i am gutted i missed the ballot application.  all week ive been thinking 'dont forget' and i bloody FORGOT!!  its now closed

i want to cry

Like you said, the chances of getting a place 2 years running are slim. There are plenty of other great races though. Have a look on runners world and you'll find loads of good races.

Don't cry Danielle. How about a charity place? I know the big ones want you to make a huge amount but some of the smaller one's are more reasonable. I got in this year, so although I made the ballot, I probably won't get in second year either but after an amazing experience, I'd love to do it again so will probably have to go for a charity place too. xx

i suppose, il just have to try hard to get a charity place.  I would really love to run for the charity i ran for this year as its important to me but they are only small and probably only have a few places.  il ask them but if i can't do it for them il be really disappointed. 

 i know all charities are worthy causes, but i would rather raise the money for the one closer to my heart if you know what i mean - my heart will be in it a lot more than a charity ive just managed to get a place through who want me to raise £xxxx for the privilage

i suppose lots of people will be in the same boat - it was an amazing experience which is also why i want to do this particular race again

Im doing a coastal marathon in September, and also a half in July which im looking forward to xx

Not as slim as you'd think.  I got in through the ballot 4 years out of 5.

Sorry you missed the online entry Danielle, seems the limit is reached earlier and earlier....

Wow!  What was your predicted finish time Motor?

Why would the chances of getting in for a second year be any worse than the odds of getting in the first year? Unless my probability maths is failing me, the odds will be exactly the same!

Doesn't it depend on how you phrase the question?

The odds of getting in the ballot in 2012 were maybe around 1 in 6 (although lots of different numbers are quoted). The odds of getting into the ballot for 2013 are also assumed to be 1 in 6. So independently the odds are exactly the same.

But the odds of getting in the next two years in a row are the combined odds not the single ones so isnt that 1/6 X 1/6 or 1 in 36 (3%)? The odds of not getting in the next two years in a row is 25/36 (69%) and the odds of getting in one of the next two years in a row around 10/36( 28%). (my maths may be equally shaky)

Its known as the gamblers fallacy - the odds of getting in this year arent changed at all by what happened last year (as the probability of what happened last year are actually 1 - you either got in or you didnt) It only looks forward you cant look back.

So everyone this year has exactly the same chance of getting in via the ballot regardless of how they did last year.

Unless the ballot works on a secret formula which includes previous entries in the calculations..... 

Which it obviously doesn't if Motor's 4 years out of 5 is correct!

I think he gets in on his star sign. Or postcode.

I got in two years in a row on ballot - 08 and 09. Didn't enter 10, 11 or 12 but have entered 13..but hey, who cares.....it is very heavily over subscribed but you just need to take your chances with thousands of others.

Most of the 'big' marathons get full up so quickly nowadays, you pretty much have to enter when entries are open and just hope you are fit to run when it gets to the event. :-/

Plenty more marathons out there.

It certainly is correct - i remember running them!!!

2007, 2009, 2010 and 2011

It probably helps that I slip a tenner to the marshall at blue pen 3........

And your chance (without the tenner) of getting in the VLM via the ballot four of the NEXT 5 years is around 0.32% (roughly 3 in 1,000)- much better chances than winning the national lottery. But my long forgotten A level maths could be well out

But...As per earlier posts, taken individually, the odds would be approximately 6:1 !

And perhaps we ought to take this to the Maths forum (if there is such a thing) as I dont think you are right. Its the difference between a individual bet on a horse and an accumulator bet. Predicting what is going to happen in the future is an accumulator and therefore the future chances of Motor getting in 4 of the NEXT 5 years is not 6:1 but roughly 3:1000

I have a theory that it depends on your predicted finish time.  I wouldn't be surprised if they choose the entrants in such a way that each pen is equally full, thats why I put down 6 hours again, I think a majority put down 4-5 hours, which will make up a majority of applicants, lowering your odds of being chosen, (if that is your predicted finish.)   Anyone have an opinion on my theory??

I agree MGG.

On that basis, I've predicted sub 2:05. Just me and the Kenyans in that pen. Entry guaranteed. Sorted. Thanks Mad . 

LOL!!!!!!